Archives for May 2022

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We have something new in U.S. politics: a pretender. Former President Donald Trump is still claiming that he really won the election, and is now saying he’ll be “reinstated” to office by August, after an audit of some kind provides proof of voter fraud. Some of his supporters are egging him on; others are going along with portions of the charade; still more are trying to ignore it all.

It’s tempting to treat the whole thing as a joke. But there are reasons to take it seriously. Political science Twitter takes us through it:

Seth Masket: “If Trump is trying to recruit allies for his reinstatement, at what point to we treat this not as a delusion but as a coup attempt? He kinda has priors.”

Lilly Goren: “Usually this turns into a civil war of some kind, at least if the deposed king is still wandering around. #Machiavelli had a lot to say about what to do with bloodlines, though that was much more in keeping with principalities and monarchies and not elected democracies/republics.”

See also Asha Rangappa and my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Francis Wilkinson.

It’s quite possible that Trump doesn’t realize what he’s proposing is flat-out illegal. That is, the choice Masket is posing is no choice at all: What Trump claims will happen, an extra-legal seizure of power, would be a coup regardless of whether he’s delusional or not. And we don’t even have to explore what he really thinks; as Benjy Sarlin points out, “What’s definitely true is he ACTS on conspiracy theories as if they were real.”

Sometimes (historical) fiction is helpful in explaining modern politics. The TV show “Outlander,” in its first three seasons, told the story of the 18th-century Jacobite revolt against the English in league with the pretender Charles Edward Stuart, or “Bonnie Prince Charlie.” The pretender is portrayed as a fairly ridiculous figure. Yet there are plenty who are willing to do his bidding, either because they truly believe in the cause, they suspect they can use the cause to further their own interests, or because their friends believe in the cause and they don’t want to contradict them. Since no one is willing to tell Stuart he’s a joke, he winds up leading them all to disaster, as the revolt is put down in battle. Indeed, since the show involves time travel, the central characters know for a fact that the rebellion is doomed, and where and how it is doomed, but they’re still helpless to stop it, largely because people around Stuart believe that he’s a royal.

“Outlander” is a historical romance, of course, but it illustrates a certain path dependency that seems to parallel what’s happening in the Republican Party. Presumably, only a handful of Republican politicians actually think that Trump will be president again by August, and most of them actually prefer abiding by the rule of law. But once the party sets up its pretender, the costs of taking him down rise rapidly. And each time they go along to get along, they make it that much harder to break out of the trap without both the party and those who risk taking Trump on bearing the costs. 

Of course, it could all amount to nothing. Reporting suggests that some of Trump’s advisers are trying to steer him elsewhere. And while he’s known for his preoccupations, he’s also known for not following through on things, so perhaps he’ll get distracted rather than continuing to build the expectations of his strongest supporters. It’s also possible that more Republicans will decide that the costs of defying Trump are smaller than the costs (to themselves and the party) of trapping themselves further. Still, even if Trump was gone from the scene entirely, democracy in the U.S. would face serious dangers. And he’s not gone yet.

1. Nicholas R. Micinski at the Monkey Cage on President Joe Biden and immigration.

2. Adam Serwer on the Jan. 6 rioters.

3. Ed Kilgore on George P. Bush and his family legacy.

4. Shefali Luthra speaks with the new administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Chiquita Brooks-LaSure.

5. Emily Stewart on the Republican efforts to cut off supplemental unemployment benefits.

6. Ana Marie Cox on the demise of Trump’s blog. 

7. And my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Cathy O’Neil makes the case for randomizing college admissions.

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Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.net

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The “Dirty Dancing” star reflects on her brief engagement to Depp in her upcoming book, “Out of the Corner.”

urgen Klopp described Tottenham’s frontline as the best in the world at what they do – in a warning to his Liverpool side ahead of their Premier League clash on Saturday.

The Reds need a win at Anfield to maintain their fight for the title but Harry Kane, Song Heung-min and Co will fancy their chances against a Liverpool defence that holds a notoriously high line.

However, Klopp is well aware of Spurs’ threat on the break, underlining their ability as the “best counter-attacking players in the world” under Antonio Conte.

“When you think about how Tottenham wins football games, they’re a brilliant football team – up front they have speed like crazy,” Klopp told reporters on Friday.

“Harry Kane, what a player. He obviously fits in that idea extremely well, there’s a blind understanding between [Tottenham’s forwards]. I’d say it’s probably the biggest challenge for protection we’ve faced for a long time.

“To win a football game, you have to create and be high up the pitch. But when you lose [the ball], you should be immediately around all of them, that’s difficult. We have to find a way to keep them calm as often as possible.”

Liverpool go into the game having booked a Champions League final date with Real Madrid, and Klopp is “happy” to get another crack at the side which beat them in the 2018 final after Los Blancos downed Manchester City in spectacular fashion.

“It was strange and unlucky for City but what Madrid did was outstanding,” he continued. “They got through against PSG, Chelsea and City… If you knock out these three teams, you definitely deserve to be in final.

“[The final] will be great. We were not happy that night [in 2018] but that was a while ago. I’m happy to go there and give it a try.”